Monday, November 08, 2004

Looking Ahead - US Senate 2006

My better half just e-mailed this to me:

"In the five elections since World War II that featured a president in his sixth year -- so called ‘six-year-itch' cycles -- the party out of the Oval Office has picked up an average of 29 House and six Senate seats." Roll Call - November 4, 2004

Senators up for re-election in 2006:ARIZONA: Jon Kyl (R)CALIFORNIA: Dianne Feinstein (D)CONNECTICUT: Joe Lieberman (D)DELAWARE: Thomas R. Carper (D)FLORIDA: Bill Nelson (D)HAWAII: Daniel K. Akaka (D)INDIANA: Richard G. Lugar (R) MAINE: Olympia J. Snowe (R)MARYLAND: Paul S. Sarbanes (D)MASSACHUSETTS: Edward M. Kennedy (D)MICHIGAN: Debbie Stabenow (D)MINNESOTA: Mark Dayton (DFL)MISSISSIPPI: Trent Lott (R)MISSOURI: Jim Talent (R)MONTANA: Conrad Burns (R)NEBRASKA: Ben Nelson (D)NEVADA: John Ensign (R)NEW JERSEY: Jon S. Corzine (D)NEW MEXICO: Jeff Bingaman (D)NEW YORK: Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)NORTH DAKOTA: Kent Conrad (D)OHIO: Mike DeWine (R)PENNSYLVANIA: Rick Santorum (R)RHODE ISLAND: Lincoln D. Chafee (R)TENNESSEE: Bill Frist (R)TEXAS: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)UTAH: Orrin G. Hatch (R)VERMONT: Jim Jeffords (I)VIRGINIA: George F. Allen (R)WASHINGTON: Maria Cantwell (D)WEST VIRGINIA: Robert C. Byrd (D)WISCONSIN: Herbert H. Kohl (D)WYOMING: Craig Thomas (R)

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From Modern Vertebrate web sitehttp://www.modernvertebrate.com/elections/2006-national/

U.S. Senate Races

Retirement watch

California (Feinstein-D) - Feinstein is in her 70s and may retire, or she might run for governor. Possible opponents include Condoleezza Rice (R), Rep. Doug Ose, state Sen. Tom McClintock, Rep. Darrell Issa and Rep. George Radanovich.

Connecticut (Lieberman-D) - Lieberman will be 64 in election year. After losing his bid for the presidential nomination in 2004, he may call it quits. However, if he runs, he's safe.

Indiana (Lugar-R) - Lugar is safe if he runs again, although he'll be 76 in election year and he may retire.

Massachusetts (Kennedy-D) - Kennedy will be 75 come election year, and he may retire.

Utah (Hatch-R) - He'll be 72 election year, and he may retire. If he does run, he'll coast to re-election.

Vermont (Jeffords-I) - Jim Jeffords will be 72 in election year. If he decides to run, the man without a party may have a tough time raising cash, although Democrats

West Virginia (Byrd-D) - Byrd will be 88 years old in 2006 and may retire.

In trouble???

Maine (Snowe-R) - Snowe, a moderate, might see a challenge from a more conservative Republican in the primary.

Mississippi (Lott-R) - Something tells me that Lott won't be running for re-election. If he does, he'll likely face a stiff Democratic challenge, possibly from former Attorney General Mike Moore.

New York (Clinton-D) - Clinton will no doubt run for re-election in 2006, which will likely put her against the state's Republican heavy-hitters, including former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Gov. George Pataki.

Pennsylvania (Santorum-R) - I'd say Sen. Rick "Man on Dog" Santorum is probably going to be in trouble in this Democrat-leaning state.

Safe seats (for now!)

Arizona (Kyl-R) - Jon Kyl will be 64 in election year and will likely run again. Arizona Democrats may go after Kyl after giving the other Ariz. senator, John McCain, a pass in 2004. Still, Kyl is pretty safe.

Delaware (Carper-D) - Carper will likely seek a second term.

Florida (Bill Nelson-D) - Former astronaut Nelson is safe if he runs (he'll turn 64 years ago in 2006), although Florida has been a toss-up state in recent years. Rep. Katherine Harris likely declined to run in 2004 to make a run for this seat or else governor.

Hawaii (Akaka-D) - Akaka is getting up there in age, but will probably run again.

Maryland (Sarbanes-D)

Michigan (Stabenow-D)

Minnesota (Dayton-D) - Sen. Dayton will likely run again.

Missouri (Talent-R) - Freshman Sen. Jim Talent will likely run again.

Montana (Burns-R) - Burns will probably run again.

Nebraska (Ben Nelson-D)

Nevada (Ensign-R)

New Jersey (Corzine-D)

New Mexico (Bingaman-D) - Bingham is pretty safe if he runs again.

North Dakota (Conrad-D)

Ohio (DeWine-R)

Rhode Island (Chafee-R)

Tennessee (Frist-R) - Frist will no doubt coast to re-election.

Texas (Hutchinson-R) - Hutchinson may run for governor in 2006. If not, she's a safe bet for re-election.

Virginia (Allen-R) - He will likely run and be re-elected.

Washington (Cantwell-D)

Wisconsin (Kohl-D) - Kohl's pretty safe if he runs again, although former Gov. and Secy. of Health & Human Services Tommy Thompson may make it interesting.

Wyoming (Thomas-R)

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